 (had to remake for sweepstakes compatibility).

2025 Australian Open – Women's singles (Wikipedia)

Which female player will win the singles title in 2025?

If an unforeseen circumstance occurs which would prevent one clear winner, this market may resolve split between the remaining players still in contention.

Resolves to the winning team. The game between Detroit Lions (home) and Washington Commanders (away) is scheduled for 2025-01-19 at 01:00:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

The Kansas City Chiefs won the past 2 Super Bowls. Will they play in the Super Bowl again in 2025?

2025 Australian Open – Men's singles (Wikipedia)

Which male player will win the singles title in 2025?

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Philadelphia Flyers beat Washington Capitals 5pm Oct 22

Florida Panthers beat Minnesota Wild 5:30pm Oct 22

New Jersey Devils beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5:45pm Oct 22

Buffalo Sabres beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 22

Montreal Canadiens beat New York Rangers 6:15pm Oct 22

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6:30pm Oct 22

New York Islanders beat Detroit Red Wings 6:45pm Oct 22

St. Louis Blues beat Winnipeg Jets 7pm Oct 22

Chicago Blackhawks beat Vancouver Canucks 7:15pm Oct 22

Resolves to the winning team. The game between Los Angeles Lakers (home) and Brooklyn Nets (away) is scheduled for 2025-01-18 at 03:30:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

OpenAI flagship language model (ie. gpt-5)

 = available to some portion of the public (including a subset of subscribers or a limited number of API developers from members of the public). Released only for safety testing does

 = Either announced by the company as a new model, is clear from numbering/naming it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some sort of menu as a distinct model. Something like "o1 extra mini" would count as while it is part of o1 it can be considered a distinct model in this market.

Please note that any model which came out this month prior to market creation will not count (a new model from the company should come out for the answer to resolve to yes). For example Nvidia's recently released AI called Cosmos will not count towards this market.

Must be released before January 31st 11:59pm PST. If it is announced but not yet released to any members of the public it will not count.

refers to any model that is not their new flagship model (eg. gpt 5), o3, or o3-mini, a video generator, or an image generator. It could be a derivative of another language model or some other type of model such as a voice generator.

 refers to a model comparable to claude 3.5 or gpt-4o that should outperform claude 3.5 sonnet on a majority of performance benchmarks. This should not be a reasoning model.

refers to a model that is not considered their everyday task model and is akin to what OpenAI's O1 is to gpt-4o. 

refers to any model that is not a reasoning model nor their new flagship model. For example, it could be a derivative of an existing language model or a different type of AI model entirely.

Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance

Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance

Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance

This market takes into consideration the status of TikTok on April 1st, 00:00 PST. So any upcoming bans/acquisitions will not matter if they aren't legally finalised and already in place.

" if the vast majority of the public can still legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US and visit 

Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance" 

if the above criteria are true, however majority ownership is held by a company that is not ByteDance Ltd. This could include a new company formed with ties to ByteDance.

" if the vast majority of the public can not legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US, can not watch content on their TikTok app, and can not access 

" if meaningful restrictions have been put into place but some US residents can still legally access some TikTok content. Note that any existing restrictions, such as those on government employees, will not be taken into account. This could include, but is not limited to:

" if TikTok no longer exists as its own app and has been acquired or merged with another company's platform. Note that this is similar to "Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance

however, the distinct difference is that for this option TikTok should no longer exist as its own app/website in the US (an archive version of some sort would not count). 

: If it is first banned, and then in response they integrated by April 1st then it will resolve to this answer and not completely banned.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

Resolves YES if Elon Musk & ByteDance formally begin the process for Elon Musk to be at least a substantial owner of TikTok's US operations, before market close (August 31st 2025).

It does not matter if that process is eventually blocked (by the courts or etc) before it can complete, the formal process just needs to begin. But simply an announcement of "I'd like to do this" is not sufficient—there needs to be clear legal action that this is happening, according to a credible consensus of reporting.

It also resolves YES if TikTok is acquired by any company (e.g. X Corp, X.AI, etc) where Musk is CEO, the largest shareholder, or is otherwise viewed as the dominant force behind the company. 

Otherwise (including in the absence of any other information), resolves NO at market close.

[01/14 creator clarification]: To clarify "substantial owner", the criteria for YES on that point will be fairly broad—the spirit of the market is about whether the public would generally would consider Elon to have "bought" TikTok in any formalized sense. The goal is to avoid rules lawyering about the exact corporate structure that he uses (to put it informally, "well 

 he's not quite the 'owner' of TikTok!" is likely not going to be enough to resolve this NO). Note: I can only clarify resolution for the mana market, & I do not run the sweeps version.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

OpenAI's original definition for AGI is as follows:

Here is a diagram illustrating the governance structure of OpenAI:

The following is a quote from the original post by OpenAI, 

An action that would "hint at" OpenAI achieving AGI would be the exclusion of a specific state of the art AI system from IP licenses and other commercial terms with Microsoft while their partnership with Microsoft remains more or less the same structurally (although the composition might change). 

Same market for a longer time-frame is below:

Resolves YES if the deadline for Bytedance to divest from the US entity TikTok is removed or extended past January 19th 2025, 23:59 ET.

If Trump arranges for TikTok’s deadline to be extended, and the extension technically begins after he takes power on the 19th, this market will still resolve Yes as long as TikTok never becomes unavailable to download for the majority of US residents. This applies even if the deadline technically runs out before the extension takes effect.

Otherwise, this market will resolve No as soon as TikTok the deadline is passed and there are no plans for an extension. If Trump has announced plans for an extension, but TikTok has become unavailable to download for any amount of time for the majority of US residents as the deadline has passed, then this market will resolve No.

Ban transgender women from participating in women sports

End birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants through executive action

Terminate federal funding for gender affirming care

Try to get back the $175M bail he posted in April 2024

Pardon himself (even if this is later overturned by a court)

Pardon at least 5 named people (not as part of a group)

Ban transgender people from joining the military

Have visible whiter areas on his face because he just can’t stop fake tanning

Take credit for averting the government shutdown.

Promote his new parfum “Fight! fight! fight!”

Make male and female the only federally recognized genders

Enact any executive order primarily affecting the transgender population

Mention o1 or o3 in a speech/social media post/EO/etc

Pardon someone who has not been convinced of any crime

Make a tweet/truth that includes at least two words in ALL CAPS (no acronyms)

Take the oath of office before the term begins by law (Before Noon)

Mention any of the 80,000 Hours most pressing world problems

Order Navy Seals to assassinate Democrat politicians while being covered by presidential immunity

Mention his legal immunity (for official presidential acts)

Nothing particularly noteworthy, according to a Manifold poll

Ride together in the same limosine with Joe Biden

Walk the parade route for at least 50 steps

Give an inauguration speech that is received extremely negatively by mainstream media, as judged by Quillist

State that he was responsible for the Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal

Truthfully claim that his second inauguration was more well attended than his first

Order flags to be flown at full-staff (returned to normal)

Make a significant gaffe that is covered by the media, as judged by Qullist

Sit next to Mike Johnson at the inaugural lunch

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp) 

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term) 

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot 

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position 

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out 

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month 

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

The department of education gets desolved

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

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