Cleveland Browns beat Cincinnati Bengals (12/22) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Houston Texans beat Kansas City Chiefs (12/21) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens (12/21) 4:30 PM (CBS)

New England Patriots beat Buffalo Bills (12/22) 1:00 PM (CBS)

New York Giants beat Atlanta Falcons (12/22) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Detroit Lions beat Chicago Bears (12/22) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Arizona Cardinals beat Carolina Panthers (12/22) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Los Angeles Rams beat New York Jets (12/22) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Philadelphia Eagles beat Washington Commanders (12/22) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Tennessee Titans beat Indianapolis Colts (12/22) 1:00 PM (CBS)

1) Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Chargers (12/19) 8:15 PM (Prime)

Minnesota Vikings beat Seattle Seahawks (12/22) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Jacksonville Jaguars beat Las Vegas Raiders (12/22) 4:25 PM (CBS)

San Francisco 49ers beat Miami Dolphins (12/22) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Dallas Cowboys (12/22) 8:20 PM (NBC)

New Orleans Saints beat Green Bay Packers (12/23) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Resolves to the winning team. The game between Miami Dolphins (home) and San Francisco 49ers (away) is scheduled for 2024-12-22 at 21:25:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Philadelphia Flyers beat Washington Capitals 5pm Oct 22

Florida Panthers beat Minnesota Wild 5:30pm Oct 22

New Jersey Devils beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5:45pm Oct 22

Buffalo Sabres beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 22

Montreal Canadiens beat New York Rangers 6:15pm Oct 22

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6:30pm Oct 22

New York Islanders beat Detroit Red Wings 6:45pm Oct 22

St. Louis Blues beat Winnipeg Jets 7pm Oct 22

Chicago Blackhawks beat Vancouver Canucks 7:15pm Oct 22

12/21 13:00 ET Chiefs: Will Patrick Mahomes (ankle) play?

12/22 16:05 ET Seahawks: Will Geno Smith (knee) play?

12/23 20:15 ET Saints: Will Derek Carr (hand/concussion) play?

12/22 16:25 ET Raiders: Will Aidan O'Connell (knee) play?

12/21 16:30 ET Ravens: Will Rashod Bateman (foot) play?

12/22 13:00 ET Browns: Will David Njoku (hamstring) play?

12/22 13:00 ET Giants: Will Tyrone Tracy (ankle) play?

12/22 13:00 ET Panthers: Will Jalen Coker (quad) play?

12/22 13:00 ET Panthers: Will David Moore (concussion) play?

12/22 13:00 ET Browns: Will Cedric Tillman (concussion) play?

12/22 13:00 ET Commanders: Will Zach Ertz (concussion/shoulder) play?

12/22 13:00 ET Titans: Will Tony Pollard (ankle) play?

12/22 16:25 ET Dolphins: Will Tyreek Hill (wrist/personal) play?

12/23 20:15 ET Saints: Will Marquez Valdes-Scantling (chest/illness) play?

If the player records at least 1 snap it will resolve YES.

Resolves to the winning team. The game between Atlanta Falcons (home) and New York Giants (away) is scheduled for 2024-12-22 at 18:00:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

Resolves to the winning team or draw. The match between Tottenham (home) and Liverpool (away) is scheduled for 2024-12-22 at 16:30:00 GMT. If the match is delayed, the market will be extended. If the match is permanently cancelled or an unexpected event occurs preventing a clear outcome, this market may be resolved to 33%-33%-33% between the 3 answers.

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

Josh Allen MVP Odds Improve By 12/25 (Currently: -900)

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

 For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 360 yards and loses

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* https://tinyurl.com/highestgame

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

Any 400 yard passer (https://tinyurl.com/400Yarder)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 super bowl favorites by 12/25 (Bills, Eagles, Lions, Chiefs, Ravens))*

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

Will a championship belt change teams (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

LA teams finish with a better record than NY teams

A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Add your own props related to Week Twelve (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Twelve finishes, but not later than that.

Add your own props related to Week Sixteen (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Sixteen finishes, but not later than that.

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:

Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.

The Millennium Prize Problems are well-known complex mathematical problems selected by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The Clay Institute has pledged a US$1 million prize for the first correct solution to each problem.

The AI system must independently solve the Millennium Prize Problem without any human assistance during the solution process. Humans can only set up the AI architecture and train it on publicly available knowledge.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

[This is Casey's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]

This market will resolve to yes if Google's Gemini Ultra or other state-of-the-art LLM is roughly equivalent to OpenAI's best publicly available LLM on December 31, 2024, and if Google's AI products have cut into ChatGPT's share of the consumer LLM chatbot market. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.

This question resolves to YES if the state-of-the-art average accuracy score on the FrontierMath benchmark, as reported prior to midnight, January 1st 2028 Pacific Time, is above 85.0% for any fully-automated computer method. Credible reports include but are not limited to blog posts, arXiv preprints, and papers. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO. 

I will use my discretion in determining whether a result should be considered valid. Obvious cheating, such as including the test set in the training data, does not count.

Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones

At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered 

Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a country allied to the US

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a US adversary

Uses cellular networks to send and receive data

Does not use cellular networks to send and receive data

The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration

Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings

Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat

Trade on politics & more