About

MANIFOLD
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.

Our mission

  • Provide the most accurate, real-time predictions on any event.
  • Combat misleading news by incentivising traders to be fast and correct.
  • Help people make more informed decisions by improving their model of the future.

    • Intro video

    Everything you need to know in 7 minutes presented by an animated corgi:
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