If X happens by EOY 2024, will Netanyahu be replaced as prime minister by EOY 2025?
Basic
5
แน2262025
69%
Baseline (will be resolved to YES or NO only)
50%
Bezalel Smotrich quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
40%
Yoav Gallant quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
32%
Benny Gants quits or gets fired over dispute with Netanyahu
32%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizes relations
24%
IDF takes control over Rafah
At the end of 2024, I'll resolve all the options that didn't happen to N/A. Then at the end of 2025 I'll resolve the remaining options by whether or not Netanyahu serves as the prime minister of Israel.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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