In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
Plus
9
Ṁ20222027
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question automatically resolves NO if the market for commercial AI forecasting, involving for-profit companies, does not exist or has less than $1B in revenue during 2026. Otherwise, resolves to whether the commercial AI forecasting service with the highest 2026 revenue publishes data showing a platform-wide Brier score below 0.1.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]
39% chance
Will there be substantive issues with Safe AI’s claim to forecast better than the Metaculus crowd, found before 2025?
73% chance
Will a business run by AI make more than 1 million USD in profit before 2025?
25% chance
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?
31% chance
Which strategy will get the best Brier Score on the 2024 ACX prediction contest?
Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?
39% chance
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2025?
13% chance
The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026
Will xAI have the most powerful AI by December 2024?
17% chance
Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100" market decline to 10% by the end of 2024?
56% chance