In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
Plus
9
Ṁ20222027
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question automatically resolves NO if the market for commercial AI forecasting, involving for-profit companies, does not exist or has less than $1B in revenue during 2026. Otherwise, resolves to whether the commercial AI forecasting service with the highest 2026 revenue publishes data showing a platform-wide Brier score below 0.1.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of...
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]
69% chance
Will software-side AI scaling appear to be suddenly discontinuous before 2025?
24% chance
Will a business run by AI make more than 1 million USD in profit before 2025?
20% chance
Which strategy will get the best Brier Score on the 2024 ACX prediction contest?
Will any AI model score >80% on Epoch's Frontier Math Benchmark in 2025?
43% chance
Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?
45% chance
Will an AI SWE model score higher than 50% on SWE-bench in 2024?
20% chance
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2025?
6% chance
The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026