https://manifold.markets/Jx/is-luigi-mangione-the-person-who-sh I'm out of liquidity to do more arbitrage but these markets are out of sync

Is Luigi Mangione the person who shot UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson?

89% chance. Luigi Mangione was reportedly taken in by authorities on 12/9/24. He was at a McDonald's in Altoona, Pennsylvania. https://nypost.com/2024/12/09/us-news/person-of-interest-in-fatal-shooting-of-unitedhealthcare-boss-brian-thompson-idd-as-luigi-mangione-an-ex-ivy-league-student/ I will not vote in this market. Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): This market will resolve based on whether Luigi Mangione is convicted of shooting Brian Thompson, with all appeals exhausted. Update 2024-14-12 (PST): Market will resolve as No if the conviction status is not determined by the market end date. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2024-15-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will resolve based on whether Luigi Mangione is convicted of shooting Brian Thompson by the market end date of 12/31/25 If Mangione dies before the market end date without being convicted, market will resolve as No If conviction status is not determined by market end date, market will resolve as No Update 2024-16-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market will resolve as: Yes if Mangione is convicted of murder Yes if Mangione pleads guilty No if Mangione is acquitted No if Mangione is not convicted No if Mangione is never charged No if Mangione dies before a conviction

@PatrickHunter I think you're confused. He will likely be found guilty and it will likely happen in 2026-2027. In this market you're betting on the fact that his case will be resolved faster than some other public cases, even though his lawyer indicates that they're going to fight this tooth and nail.

@RiskComplex Update 2024-15-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Market will resolve based on whether Luigi Mangione is convicted of shooting Brian Thompson by the market end date of 12/31/25

• If Mangione dies before the market end date without being convicted, market will resolve as No

• If conviction status is not determined by market end date, market will resolve as No

Some NO at 64.

Do murder trials frequently get scheduled and fully handled within 13 months? My prior for that might just be wrong, but I don't think they do.

Also family is wealthy and likely to hire strong law team that will fight hard for delays, mental health procedural requests etc.

@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso murder trials on that timeline happen reasonably often. If I was on his defense team I would want this trial as soon as possible to capitalize on the public’s fickle sympathy.

@DanielGlasscock Yea it seems like his best defense is going to be jury nullification.

https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-a-manifold-user-be-convicted-o

this market should be at a greater price than this market

@Robincvgr oh it's rose a lot since the last time I've seen it lol

Can someone explain the No case? Is it just that he dies?

@FergusArgyll that the court case is delayed for a while and it takes more than a year to complete

according to chatgpt uh

@FergusArgyll

also
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jury_nullification

maybe that could foreseeably happen?

lmao that would be hilarious

and if he pleas guilty I assume this resolves yes?

@Riley12 good question and i was currently workout out how i should modify the description to make that clear, but yes presumably everyone understood that to be how it was intended to resolve in that eventuality. I added:
This market will resolve YES if:

• Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2026.

sweepified