If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, through which country will it happen?
4
540Ṁ1492029
46%
38%
Venezuela
12%
Haiti
3%
Brazil
1.1%
Other country, unlisted here by the time the first suspect case arises
Related to the market: Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?
The resolution criteria is the same as the above mentioned market: only wild poliovirus count, and only cases that lead to local transmission count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
If polio is reintroduced in the Americas until Aug 25th, 2029, will it cause an outbreak w/ ≥200 cases in one country?
15% chance
Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?
12% chance
Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2025?
10% chance
Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
58% chance
Will there be a case of paralysis or death attributed to polio in the USA before 2030
70% chance
Will any wild-type poliovirus (WPV1) cases be reported in 2025?
50% chance
What % of US children age 24 months will be vaccinated against polio in 2030?
Will regulations or mandates on the polio vaccine for children be lessened by the end of Trump's term?
42% chance
Lockdowns/mandates in USA from Monkeypox by end of 2026?
5% chance