Will Mexico reform its National Electoral Institute by the end of Claudia Sheinbaum's 1st year in office?
39%
chance

Context:

Claudia Sheinbaum, the future president of Mexico, and her coalition have secured a two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives with 365 out of 500 seats in the 2024 elections. However, they have come close but fallen short of a qualified majority in the Senate with 83 out of 128 seats (they would need 85 to have a qualified majority).

Outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has proposed controversial constitutional reforms, including a complete overhaul of the National Electoral Institute (INE). Critics argue that these reforms could eliminate essential oversight bodies, erode checks and balances, and centralize more power in the executive branch. Concerns over these potential changes have already caused significant market reactions, including drops in local stock markets and a significant depreciation of the Mexican peso after AMLO reinforced his intention of pushing for reforms after the elections.

AMLO's proposed changes to the INE include restructuring the institute and lowering the minimum voter participation required for binding referendums. These proposals have sparked significant public protests and opposition, with critics fearing they could cement Morena's political dominance. During her presidency, Sheinbaum will have the task of either continuing or modifying AMLO's controversial reforms.

Resolution Criteria:

This question will be resolved based on whether Morena and its allies successfully pass the proposed reforms to the National Electoral Institute (INE) through both chambers of Congress during Claudia Sheinbaum's first year in office. I will resolve it according to credible news sources reporting on Congress's final decisions.

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