In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?
Mini
9
Ṁ5952100
1D
1W
1M
ALL
43%
2020s
21%
2030s
9%
2040s
4%
2050s
4%
2060s
4%
2070s
4%
2080s
5%
2090s
6%
Not by 2100
Some people are really optimistic about fusion, especially given recent progress. Initial probability is still super low here anyways because fusion power has been "soon" many times in the past.
Engineering breakeven basically means that the reaction generates enough excess energy to power itself, and is explained in this wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor
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