Significant attack on post-quantum signature SPHINCS+ published before Nov 2026
Basic
2
Ṁ1412026
10%
chance
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1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes, if, before November 2026, an attack on quantum or conventional computer of the signature scheme SPHINCS+ (1) is published (preprint, journal article or conference proceeding), that leads to NIST dropping the algorithm from its post-quantum standard, or discouraging its use; or alternatively, if multiple recognized/leading cryptographers recommend against its use.
I reserve the right to discuss in the comments, temporarily halt trading, and possibly even resolve N/A on ambiguity. Suggestions and comments on resolution criteria are welcome if made well in advance of the resolving event
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