Will Stefan Schubert create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Basic
7
Ṁ1372028
70%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Stefan Schubert, researcher at the LSE.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
42% chance
Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
39% chance
Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
64% chance
Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
70% chance
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
39% chance
Will Max Roser create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
42% chance
Will Samo Burja create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
46% chance
Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?
22% chance
Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
40% chance
Will Ethan Mollick create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
27% chance