Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
31
180Ṁ23592029
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining agency(ies) will be considered sufficient.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?
8% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
39% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
26% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
35% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
30% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
26% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
19% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025
9% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
32% chance