Resolves YES if the Buffet family charitable trust donates to an organization associated with the Effective Altruism movement (e.g. GiveWell, OpenPhil, etc.)

Resolves NO if the charitable trust is never formed or it is formed but does not give to an EA org prior to 2030.

Alexander Berger of OpenPhil called it "the most important story in philanthropy" in a tweet:

Details from axios article:

"At some point in the next few years, a charitable trust will be created that will immediately be the largest such entity in the world. Amazingly, no one seems to have given much thought to what it might do or where it will spend its money.

Why it matters: Warren Buffett's yet-to-be-named charitable trust will be 100% effective from day one at ensuring that his estate pays no tax on the billions he has made.

• Whether and how it will have any philanthropic impact seems to be a secondary consideration.

The big picture: The charitable trust that Buffett intends to create upon his death will contain all of the shares of Berkshire Hathaway he still owns — a sum currently worth more than $127 billion.

• By contrast, the largest current philanthropy in the world, the Gates Foundation, has total assets of $76 billion.

Where it stands: At one point, the Gates Foundation expected to receive the bulk of Buffett's estate, and even put together a plan nicknamed "Project Lincoln" to prepare for the massive bequest.

• Now, however, in an interview with the WSJ, Buffett has declared that "the Gates Foundation has no money coming after my death."

• Instead, his fortune will go to a charitable trust to be administered by his three children. They can spend the money only by unanimous agreement.

Between the lines: Buffett's three children don't make for natural charitable bedfellows.

• Susie, 71, runs the Sherwood Foundation, which is focused on Nebraska.

• Peter, 66, runs the NoVo Foundation, which "supports initiatives that promote a holistic, interconnected and healing vision for humanity," especially in the small town of Kingston, NY.

• Howie, 69, runs the Howard G Buffett Foundation, whose home page features a lot of armed soldiers. He has also spent a lot of time and money arming — and patrolling with — the border police in Cochise County, Arizona.

The intrigue: Buffett has charged his children with "responding to any future changes to the laws governing taxes and foundations" — but has seemingly given them little if any guidance on the giving-money-away part of their new job.

• That's in line with his past practice: Buffett's personal involvement in charitable giving, he wrote in 2021, "has essentially been nil."

• "We have not talked about what we will do," Susie Buffett told the WSJ."

https://www.axios.com/2024/07/01/warren-buffett-pledge-100-billion