The African Buffalo, is a large Sub-Saharan African bovine. It is currently listed as Near Threatened on the IUCN Red List. For more information about the African Buffalo, see:
This market addresses the question of whether the African Buffalo will become extinct by 2100 or earlier. Extinction is defined as the death of the last individual of the species.
The market will resolve YES if and when the African Buffalo is officially listed as Extinct by the IUCN, including at any time earlier than 2100.
The market will resolve NO if the IUCN listing in the year 2100 makes it clear that the African Buffalo is still extant. This includes any listing as Least Concern, Near Threatened, Vulnerable, Endangered, or Extinct in the Wild. A listing as Critically Endangered qualifies for a NO resolution, but only if it is not accompanied by the subcategory (possibly extinct). A listing as Data Deficient qualifies for a NO resolution if the justification text makes it clear that the African Buffalo is still extant.
If the IUCN listing in 2100 leaves doubt about whether the African Buffalo is extinct or not, the resolution will be determined based on the best available evidence, following a discussion in the comments. This might include the following cases: a listing as Critically Endangered (possibly extinct), a listing as Data Deficient with a justification text that leaves doubts about its survival, consistent failure of the IUCN to update its assessments, the ceasing of the IUCN's existence.
1,000
3.00