Another way of putting it: "When will the first completely AI-made feature-length movie be released?"
This question resolves when there is an experience that includes motion video that is:
90+ minutes
That has the script (if any) written by an AI
An AI produces all images and sound without cameras, microphones, or actors
The images, script, and sound are all of a quality similar to or better than a 2022 Hollywood movie with a budget of more than $100,000,000. (If there is a dispute, this can be resolved by a majority of humans on a 100-human random survey saying the experience has that quality.)
Released on a subscription streaming service, in movie theatres, or another pay-walled venue. If no such venues exist, this question resolves to "never."
The experience may be 2D or 3D.
The experience must be non-interactive (in the sense that nothing the viewer does will change the run-time or progression)
A well-rendered puzzle that takes everyone more than 90 minutes to solve (and thus runs 90+ minutes) would not count, for example.
The viewer can interact with the presentation but not the "world" the experience presents.
Interactivity of the kind where one might view the unfolding experience from different perspectives is permissible—for example, being able to jump to various locations to view a battle unfolding.
Changing the "filters" applied is OK. (Being able to make the video sepia, rainbow, or distorted.)
Having a player that replays the experience at double-, triple-, or half-speed is OK.
A <= 2048 character prompt is OK, as are running several generated products by focus groups etc., before releasing. The AI does not have to handle legal issues, distribution, accounting, or marketing. However, humans in the loop for the production of each experience do not match this question. For example, having the AI generate scenes or shots and a human stitch them together or select the best next one does not count as completely AI-generated.
The time used for the resolution is the first time the experience is available to the general public (as opposed to test audiences, reviewers, or focus groups.) "General public" indicates a geographic region larger than 140,000 km^2 and a potential audience of more than 4,625,000 humans. (Those numbers are approximate median US state land areas and populations in 2021 rounded to convenient round numbers.)
Related: https://manifold.markets/vluzko/will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate, https://manifold.markets/vluzko/will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate-6aeae916397c, https://manifold.markets/ChanaMessinger/by-2028-will-ai-be-able-to-make-a-f, https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-an-aidrawn-movie-have-a-rating
List of 2022 movies with a budget of more than $100M as of 12 Dec 2022 from The Numbers: Babylon, Emancipation, Uncharted, Moonfall, Jurassic World: Dominion, Top Gun: Maverick, Turning Red, The Gray Man, Fantastic Beasts, The Secrets of Dumbledore, Lightyear, Black Adam, The Batman, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Thor: Love and Thunder