Based on James Webb Space Telescope observations, asteroid 2024 YR4 (approximately 60 meters in diameter) has a 3.8% chance of impacting the Moon in December 2032. While Earth impact has been ruled out, lunar impact remains a possibility.

This market resolves YES if asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts the Moon in December 2032, and NO if it misses the Moon entirely.

Resolution will be based on official NASA or other major space agency confirmations.

Sources:

• NASA Planetary Defense Blog

• Sky at Night Magazine