Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025?
Plus
1
Ṁ10232026
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution will be based on this Wikipedia page or its successor, if possible. If it significantly changes criteria or ceases to update, I will do my best to resolve based on other credible reporting and the same criteria.
Major war is defined as 10,000 or more combat-related deaths in current or previous year.
Nuclear powers will include the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
The conflict in question must not currently be listed on the "major wars" section of the page in question, as of question creation. That list is the Myanmar conflict, Arab-Israeli conflict, Insurgency in the Maghreb, Russo-Ukrainian War, and Sudanese civil war.
UTC time.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a new major war break out in 2024?
31% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
20% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
18% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
4% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)
4% chance
Will we see any major wars before the end of 2024? 🤔
24% chance
Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?
42% chance
Will nuclear weapons be used before 2025?
9% chance
Will a new nation possess nuclear weapons by 2025?
5% chance