When you have a strong opinion do you bet for it or against it?
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For it, of course, I want to prove I'm right and get the prize
Against it, in this case, if I'm wrong, I'll have the consolation of some extra mana
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Category error. When I have a strong opinion, I still have it with a probability; I'll bet for it if the market's probability is lower than mine, and against it if the market's probability is higher, because that's the profit-maximizing path.