AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2050?
Plus
18
Ṁ5122050
81%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
predictedNO
Back-of-the-envelope for folks:
~$2T is the market cap of the most valuable company in the world today (Apple). 27yr ago the most valuable company was worth ~$100B (General Electric). Assuming exponential growth and extrapolating forward, this implies that the most valuable company in the world in 2050 (i.e. 27yr from now) will be worth ~$40T.
So a $1T model would be ~2.5% of the total value of that company. That seems like a conceivable amount of money for them to spend training a massive model, assuming that they consider it to be business-critical.
Related questions
Related questions
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2025?
67% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2025?
64% chance
AI: Will someone train a $100M model by 2025?
85% chance
AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2080?
62% chance
AI: Will someone train a $10T model by 2100?
57% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $10M model by 2025?
74% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2025?
17% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $10M model by 2025?
74% chance
AI: Will someone train a $1T model by 2030?
19% chance
AI: Will someone train a $100B model by 2050?
80% chance