Will any part of French Polynesia be a sovereign state before 2040?
Mini
3
Ṁ322040
43%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If it joins the UN as a sovereign state, resolves as YES
If it is self-declared sovereign and has >90% of international recognition, resolves as YES
If it is self-declared sovereign and has <90% of international recognition, resolves as the percentage of countries that recognize its independence
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will New Caledonia become independent of France before 2035?
34% chance
Will there be a french Sixth republic by 2040?
26% chance
Will any of these countries enter into a pact similar to the Falepili Union with a Pacific Island country before 2030?
Will Greenland be a sovereign state before 2040?
26% chance
Will West Papua be independent by 2030?
33% chance
Will New Zealand become a republic by 2100?
31% chance
Will SADR (Western Sahara) be a sovereign state before 2040?
36% chance
Will Puerto Rico become a state by 2030?
28% chance