Will scientists find >4.5 billion year old zircons?
Basic
4
Ṁ48
2031
32%
chance

The oldest reported zircons are the ~4.4 Ga Jack Hills zircons. (See, for instance: https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2075). Resolves to YES if >4.5 Ga zircon U-Pb dates are reported in a peer-reviewed scientific paper by Dec. 31, 2030. At least 2 zircon grains must be >4.5 Ga and the dates must be concordant. The dates may be core ages. The source rocks must be from Earth.

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