Will viral gain-of-function research be significantly more restricted in the US on 01/01/2030?
Basic
9
Ṁ3622030
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if on 01/01/2030 I deem that regulations of viral gain-of-function research in the US are significantly more restrictive than on the day this market was created, Apr 27, 2023.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?
51% chance
Will Wikipedia credit gain-of-function research as possible cause for COVID by 2024?
43% chance
Will there be reports of an AI playing a significant role in biological gain-of-function research before 2030?
76% chance
Will any other US intelligence agency change their assessment of Covid origins towards a lab origin by the end of 2024?
28% chance
Will another illegal Chinese funded biological lab be discovered in the US in 2024?
46% chance
Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?
34% chance
Will there be any lockdowns covering > 30% of the US before 2035? (they can be bio or AI or terrorism related)
55% chance
Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?
48% chance
By the end of June 2025, will closed-source LLMs increase access to pandemic agents?
42% chance
Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
18% chance