Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
12
1kแน2282028
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Includes both offensive detonations and "tests" used to intimidate people. Any country could be the progenitor as long as it's clearly mostly about the Israel-Hamas conflict or whatever larger conflict grows out of that. (e.g. Russia launching a missile at Ukraine does not count, but Russia launching a missile at Israel does count.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?
24% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
15% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
20% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
17% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
23% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
10% chance
Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028?
68% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?
47% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
15% chance