Jacy
@Jacy
Following Followers
Relevant beliefs: (i) Any knowledge can be cashed out in more accurate predictions of observable future events. (ii) Prediction markets perform best when they tend towards literalism (i.e., follow the exact criteria instead of the "spirit"). (ii) The ability of a market creator to resolve their market against its explicit resolution criteria is a deep issue that undercuts much of the potential value of Manifold. (iii) Nonetheless, Manifold is often the best location to find a quick estimate of future events, but it has significant biases in particular cases (e.g., long-term forecasts, tail probabilities, nerd hype) and tends to underperform well-calibrated experts. // Relevant information for how much weight you put on my own forecasts: IQ ≥ 160 (highest possible score). Metaculus Brier score: 0.033. I tend to bet quickly on priors (e.g., efficient market hypothesis, against AI hype), in part because I tend to prioritize research and supporting others (e.g., moderation) over building my own forecasts on topics that aren't my core expertise. A significant amount (~20%?) of my net Manifold profits are from news trading and other non-epistemic means of making market prices more accurate. // I track my important beliefs on AI, factory farming, physics, etc. here: https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions
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