@Harlan This doesn't reflect a change in my predictions, I just don't think that prediction markets are actually useful for predicting human extinction, and I want to use my mana for other things.
I think the only point of buying and holding YES shares in this market would be to have my opinion be represented, but I can actually just share my opinion for free: I am about 80% confident that AI will wipe out humanity before the year 2100.
@jdilla It’s made me think more carefully about questions like “should I have kids” and “should I save for retirement” but I think my personal answer is still yes to both of those things.
And it’s made me pursue a career path aimed at trying to budge that percentage down as much as possible.
Withdrawing from this market (as I have the analogous market in 2030) since too many traders have decided to treat it as non-epistemic (trading in a way that reflects money not being worth anything if the world ends, rather than trading beliefs). This is not an evil or unlawful choice, but it means there's no point in watching my net worth fluctuate around my shares here.
@EliezerYudkowsky There's non-epistemic grounds to buy YES as well. In fact. for 2100 in particular, I would argue the non-epistemic trade is to be buying YES at 11%.
See Mira's magisterial treatment of the subject in this very comments section: https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th#WHfX49qPw7c5MO7SELZR
@EliezerYudkowsky Is this how you still hold on to a high pdoom and tell yourself the crowd is really with you in spite of betting against you?
@TeddyWeverka Although suffering Keynesian Beauty Contest issues, I think these markets decrease the likelihood that the crowd genuinely thinks the P(doom) is tiny
@f last proposal from dev team was a 2x global max leverage cap. Probably won't happen in that form but still spooking some traders.
@ChristianJacques you could have an AI agent represent your rights here, likely enforced through some smart contract? who knows, maybe the mana helps the good AI’s win the war.
Does "wipe out" imply killing or out-competition?
What if all of humanity voluntarily mind-uploads as in "I, Row-Boat"?
@JamesDillard Only biological humans count? What if all living humans are genetically engineered enough to be considered a separate species?