Don't want to have your mana locked up for decades, but want to make long-term wagers? You're in the right place! This is an experiment in public tracking of good old fashioned handshake wagers. The biggest proposed bets will be at the top of the leaderboard!

Here's how it works:

• Find a manifold market you want to make a wager on. You can propose a wager on how the market will resolve, or on when it will reach a certain percentage.

• Write a comment linking the market, and say how much mana you'll put on the wager and at what odds.

• Add the amount of mana you're willing to wager to the bounty. I'll then immediately award that bounty to your comment to show you currently have as much mana as you are wagering.

• Wait for someone to take you up on the wager! They can do so by responding to your comment saying they agree, and including a handshake emoji 🤝.

• If you find them to be an acceptable counterparty, reply to their handshake emoji with your own handshake emoji 🤝.

• The counterparty then submits their mana for the wager, which will be immediately awarded to their comment with the handshake.

• When the wager resolves, the loser managrams the winner! Once they've done this, please post another reply showing that the loser has remained honorable! If the loser does /not/ managram the winner, also post that so that they will be eternally shamed.

Additional rules:

• All wagers must be based on existing manifold markets. You wager either on the resolution of the market itself, or on what percent you think a market will be at on a specific date. You cannot just make up a wager that does not have a market, or modify the resolution terms of a market.

• No wagers on probably-impossible resolutions! You can wager on if the "AI Kills Everyone" market will be at 50% by a certain date, but you can't wager on the resolution itself because if we all die then no one can be honorable.

• Please avoid excessive back and forth haggling in someone's replies. If you don't like someone's proposed wager, then you can submit your own proposed wager as a top level comment. You can also DM the person and hash out terms in private, then have them edit their comment so you can reply and accept the re-negotiated terms.

• Wagers must be for mana! However, if you want to promise non-financial collateral in the event that you lose the bet and don't have the mana anymore, you are welcome to offer to eat a shoe, do an "I-was-wrong dance", etc. Just don't break any rules/laws.

• Buyer beware! I can't actually enforce any of these terms! Make sure you trust someone to be good for it before you agree to the wager with them!

I think that's everything! Feel free to point out any loopholes in the comments.