Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the average life expectancy at birth in the United States for the year 2025 is reported to be lower than that of 2024. The primary source for this data will be the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). If the CDC has not published the 2025 life expectancy data by the resolution date, other reputable sources such as the World Health Organization (WHO) or the United Nations (UN) may be used. If no such data is available by the resolution date, the market will resolve to "N/A."

Background:

Life expectancy at birth is a statistical measure indicating the average number of years a newborn is expected to live, assuming that current mortality rates remain constant throughout their lifetime. In the United States, life expectancy has experienced fluctuations in recent years. For instance, it declined during the COVID-19 pandemic but has shown signs of recovery. In 2023, the CDC reported an increase in life expectancy to 78.4 years, up from 77.5 years in 2022. (amp.cnn.com)

Projections for 2025 suggest a modest increase in life expectancy. According to data from MacroTrends, the life expectancy for the U.S. in 2025 is projected to be 79.40 years, a 0.18% increase from 2024. (macrotrends.net)

However, long-term forecasts indicate potential challenges. A study by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projects that U.S. life expectancy will rise from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050, a modest increase compared to other countries. Consequently, the U.S. is expected to fall from 49th to 66th in global life expectancy rankings by 2050. (edition.cnn.com)

Factors influencing these trends include declining mortality rates from heart disease, stroke, and diabetes, as well as rising rates of obesity and drug use disorders. (edition.cnn.com)

Considerations:

• Data Availability: Official life expectancy data for 2025 may not be released until late 2026 or beyond. Traders should be aware of potential delays in data publication.

• Data Sources: While the CDC is the primary source, alternative reputable sources may be used if CDC data is unavailable by the resolution date.

• External Factors: Unforeseen events, such as pandemics or significant public health interventions, can impact life expectancy trends and should be considered when making predictions.