Will OpenAI and DeepMind merge?
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1.2%
Yes, they will merge or announce intention to merge/form a single company
6%
They will announce / release a joint capability (not safety) related project.
This tweet rumors that they will combine into one entity.
https://x.com/yumidiot/status/1786347985867247717
If this has occured or an agreement has been officially announced by 12/31/2024 (even if later rescinded) this will resolve YES for merge. Alternatively, if Sam Altman and Demis Hassabis both leave OpenAI and Deep Mind to form / join a new company, it will resolve YES.
If merge resolves YES, joint project will resolve NO. Joint project will resolve YES only for capabilities, including a model, data share, or compute. (I'll interpret this broadly as long as it's not primarily for safety.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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