This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Pennsylvania, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
1,000
3.00@DanielSacks race and gender probably matter / perceptions of Kamala a weak candidate from California who couldn't separate from Biden.
For Dems to win they should've went with Shapiro Whitmer to really solidify the blue wall.
Wild that someone as terrible as Trump can get elected based on vibes and anti-incumbent sentiment.
The US is cooked. The democratic party is too soft they just let Republicans punch them the last 30 years.
Have to burn it all down and start over and get rid of all the politicians over 60 and target young voters by being centrist socially and highlighting Trumps economic propaganda. corruption with better propoganda. He'll probably be senile at 82 too.
The problem is that rural America is TFG and Trump has got in the good graces of tech billionaires with X being a right wing misinformation cesspool and Meta limiting politics while TikTok is reducing the IQ of young Americans.
Or I guess if there's a recession. Idk I'm rambling.
The last time this happened for a presidential election, the test results called in correctly
Would love to be wrong
@JoeandSeth this honestly has me wanting to buy NO in every market for Trump. This, combined with a litany of different concerning videos I've seen across social media have me concerned, to say the least. I'll refrain from elaborating on my concerns as people here are likely to have a conniption over anyone worrying that there just might be some fraudulent activity going on, but, it is what it is. Weird how these "errors" usually seem to go in one direction.
@dieselbaby1337 you should make a bar chart of all the errors you have found in media so that we can see what the bell curve is.
@TiredCliche well, at least your username is fitting
Btw, how do you manage to lose so much M on here despite trading in so many of your own markets?
@dieselbaby1337 Why so hostile? I'm being serious, I think that would be interesting.
Biggest losses for me came from 1. Selling all of my positions to give it all to charity right before the Sweepcash thing and 2. Betting a lot on Biden staying in, because I wanted him to drop out.
@TiredCliche forgive me, I misread your comment and thought you were trying to be all snarky, my bad.
4 point difference in odds between https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside
to win PA, he's gotta win at least 20% of Philadelphia County. Bet on that here https://manifold.markets/dlin007/will-donald-trump-win-20-of-votes-i?play=true