Will humans land on Mars and lift off from its surface to an altitude of at least 10 km by 2041?
11
190Ṁ3042040
39%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria:
The rocket has to use fuel synthesized on Mars
The question is conditional on the U.S. population going down no more than 50% relative to the 2020 level - in case it gets lower, the question is voided.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will a human step foot on Mars by 2040?
62% chance
Will we land on Mars with a Manned Vehicle until 2040?
33% chance
Will a human step foot on Mars by 2030?
11% chance
Will humans successfully land on Mars within the next 30 years?
69% chance
Will any human successfully land on Mars by 2030?
10% chance
Will humans establish a permanent colony in Mars by 2040?
33% chance
Will a human walk on Mars before the end of 2045?
70% chance
Will a human mission successfully land on Mars before the end of 2035?
29% chance
Will a human will set foot on Mars by the end of 2047?
74% chance
Will humans landing on the Mars in this decade?
7% chance