Will US real-money prediction markets create significantlty more shenanigans according to Manifold ? | Manifold

Will US real-money prediction markets create significantlty more shenanigans according to Manifold ?

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A year after real-money prediction markets are allowed in the US, I will run a poll on Manifold, asking if real-money markets overall create significantly more problems than non-real-money markets. This market resolves according to poll results.

If the date at which real-money prediction markets become legal in the US isn't consensual, for example due to legal technicalities, I may run a poll or defer to the resolution on markets about that.

I won't bet on this market. Feel free to ask any question, I'll try my best.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Kalshi has been legal for some time now. https://kalshi.com/markets/topalbumyear/top-album-this-year

You can read about some real money issues here - https://scholarship.law.missouri.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4418&context=mlr

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Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?

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