Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?
Basic
3
Ṁ402028
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This video predicts that a model will achieve 100% performance on the Massive Multitask Language Understanding Benchmark.
This will resolve YES if a model is listed as having achieved 100 percent performance on the MMLU on papers with code, in a technical document, or published article by 3:00 PM EST June 28, 2028. This will resolve NO if a model is not listed as ahving achieved 100 percent performance on the MMLU.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any model get above human level (92%) on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
52% chance
Will any open-source model achieve GPT-4 level performance on MMLU through 2024?
83% chance
Will a open source pure Mamaba LLM surpass 82 MMLU on MMLU (5-shot) before end of year 2024?
25% chance
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
56% chance
Who will have the best Text-to-Image Model at the end of 2024 (as decided by the Artificial Analysis Leaderboard)?
What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?
What organization will have the top language model on LMSys overall leaderboards December 1st 2024?
Will an open-source text-to-music LLM model be able to create an entire album as convincing as a human by end of 2025?
37% chance
MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?
44% chance
By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?
62% chance