The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026
Plus
29
Ṁ25042027
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
More than 15 MPs must leave in some short burst to go somewhere else (as opposed to a large or small scandal). Or a generally agreed calamity.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Edit: thanks for updating. :)
I assume 15 MPs leaving gradually won't count? It needs to be part of some kind of splitting/collapsing event, rather than just people retiring and having individual scandals?
Related questions
Related questions
How many MPs will defect to another party in 2024?
Will the UK descend in to civil war before 2025?
1% chance
Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?
There will be 2 or more UK General elections before 2027
20% chance
Will 6 or more Tory MPs resign from their seats before 2026?
45% chance
WIll there be a civil war in the UK before 2025?
3% chance
In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years
36% chance
Who will lead the Conservative Party into the next UK general election?
The Single Market will be a key political debate in the UK before 2026
33% chance