Background

Current forecasts from platforms like Metaculus predict a median date of November 18, 2025 for a bilateral ceasefire, beyond the timeframe of this market. Russian leadership maintains strict territorial demands, including complete Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, which Ukraine has shown no willingness to accept.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• Russia and Ukraine officially announce a bilateral ceasefire agreement

• The announced ceasefire has an intended duration of at least 28 days

• The announcement occurs before October 1st, 2025

The market will resolve NO if:

• No ceasefire is announced before October 1st, 2025

• A ceasefire is announced but with an intended duration of less than 28 days

• Only one side declares a unilateral ceasefire

Considerations

• Local or regional ceasefires that don't cover the entire conflict zone will not count

• Informal or unofficial ceasefire arrangements will not count

• The ceasefire does not need to actually last 28 days - only the intended duration at announcement matters

• If a ceasefire is announced with an "indefinite" or "permanent" duration, this will count as meeting the 28-day requirement