Will Labour form a 2 term government?
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14
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44%
chance
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1W
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Labour a very likely to win the July 2024 general election. But will they win the one after that?
Resolves YES if both (1) after the July 2024 there is a Labour government, and (2) the same is true of the general election after that.
Notes:
(a) if there is a minority government, if is the party of the PM that counts
(b) if there are multiple PMs in a parliament, it is the first one who counts, with the exception that it is a hung parliament and the sitting PM lasts less than 28 days after the general election (as happened in 2010 when Brown remained PM for 5 days after the GE).
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