Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2026?
8
120Ṁ165Dec 31
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if, at time of closure, there is an entry on the SWE-bench leaderboard (https://www.swebench.com/) with score greater or equal to 90%.
Linked Questions:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
72% chance
Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
72% chance
Will OpenAI models achieve ≥90% on SimpleBench by the end of 2025?
41% chance
By what factor will the cost for SotA SWE-agents drop from 2024 to 2025?
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?
Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?
28% chance
Will a smart agent pass our Turing test by the end of 2025?
59% chance
By 2026 will there be autonomous AI good enough that I use it?
37% chance
Will an autonomous personal AI agent, capable of managing daily affairs, be available by the end of 2024?
12% chance