A market has been created to track the most likely resolution of the claims for DoD whistleblower David Grusch. For an overview of the situation, review that market.

These Manifold UFO markets have made it clear that there is now a significant nonzero probability that a "generational short" opportunity could occur in the stock market, similarly to the "generational buys" of nVIDIA and bitcoin, and that smart investors need to take that into account. However, the timing of that opportunity seems less certain than the probability that something bad, whether it be panic from non-human intelligence or fraudulent defense contractor bankruptcies, is going to happen. Please help Manifold users figure out how to adjust their real-money strategies by betting in this market.

This market will resolve to the period when enough information is available to resolve the referenced market according to its criteria. If possible, this market will resolve at the same time as the other one, but the criteria is worded specifically in this manner so that extenuating circumstances, like the demise of Manifold, won't influence the results here.

Additional dates will be added as time passes, as whether the stock market may crash in the far future is not relevant to near-term investing.