Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel through 2024 | Manifold

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel through 2024

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Sukbae Lee, Ji-Hoon Kim, Young-Wan Kwon, Hyun-Tak Kim, Sungyeon Im, SooMin An, Keun Ho Auh

Any of them win nobel prize in 2023 or 2024

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008

https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.120375

The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor

For the first time in the world, we succeeded in synthesizing the room-temperature superconductor ($T_c \ge 400$ K, 127$^\circ$C) working at ambient pressure with a modified lead-apatite (LK-99) structure. The superconductivity of LK-99 is proved with the Critical temperature ($T_c$), Zero-resistivi…

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Unless one of them is already lined up to win a nobel, there's no way they'd be granted one within 2 years for the just-made discovery (assuming it's real). Nobels are often granted with a lag time of decades.

@jonsimon I agree. The "before 2026" market is at 14% which seems high.

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Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2034?

If LK-99 is confirmed to be a superconductor, will it produce more than 100 million USD by 2025?

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2026?

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Conditional on any room-temp superconductor being replicated before 2025, will the main LK-99 market resolve YES?

Will a room-temperature superconductor with a similar-but-different composition to LK-99 be discovered by 2025?

Will any of the seven LK-99 superconductor authors win a Nobel before 2030?

Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for work on superconductors before 2034?

Will a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor (LK-99, or other) be discovered before 2025?

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