Will a OpenAI model have over 500k token capacity by the end of 2024.

AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2025?

Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?

Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)

Will OpenAI release a tokenizer with vocab size > 150k by end of 2024?

10GW AI training run before 2029?