Tumblr's porn ban in 2018 was, somewhat infamously, kind of a disaster. The new management has been taking various steps towards loosening its restrictions since then, albeit inconsistently and with lots of intermittent backsliding.

But now we seem to be going through a phase of porn-restriction-squeezing on the web again, with Patreon's limits being made stricter, Gumroad banning porn, et cetera. So. Will tumblr join in on the trend and re-ban some subset of the porn that's currently allowed on it before the end of 2024?

Market resolves Yes if tumblr makes rule-changes to this effect in 2024. Otherwise it resolves No. Illegible changes in enforcement-patterns, absent explicit rule-changes, won't be sufficient to produce a Yes resolution. If tumblr ceases to exist, ceases to allow image-posting, or otherwise makes changes that limit posting-in-general without specifically singling out porn, this won't be sufficient to produce a Yes resolution either.

I don't keep hugely-detailed track of day-to-day changes in the precise phrasing of tumblr's terms of service, so, if the changes are made silently (as opposed to with a formal announcement), I'll be relying on users here to bring the news to me.