Aspartame is currently listed as "possibly carcinogenic” by World Health Organisation/International Agency for Research on Cancer (WHO/IARC) on the basis of results from experimental animals. This designation places the compound in their cancer hazard group 2B.

There are two higher-risk categories:

• Group 2A (probably carcinogenic for humans)

• Group 1 (carcinogenic for humans)

This market will resolve YES if WHO/IARC places aspartame in either group 2A or group 1 before November 2028. If such designation does not happen, the market resolves NO.

If WHO or IARC ceases to exist or leaves behind the current categorisation, I will resolve on the basis of next best thing, using comparable institutes or a comparable cancer hazard qualification. If these are unavailable to my judgement, I will resolve N/A.

More info on the current hazard qualification can be found via:

https://www.who.int/news/item/14-07-2023-aspartame-hazard-and-risk-assessment-results-released

Aspartame hazard and risk assessment results released

Assessments of the health impacts of the non-sugar sweetener aspartame are released today by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA).