From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2026, the United States has taken either of the following steps to eliminate the Department of Education:

• Passed a bill into law that would eliminate the Department of Education.

• Congress has granted presidential reorganization authority that gives the president power to reorganize the government, with both of the following subsequently occurring:

• the president has issued an order under such power to eliminate the Department of Education

  • any oversight procedures specified in the reorganization authority passed by Congress have completed (for example, if a time limit is set on Congress to nullify such presidential orders, the time limit has expired without nullification)

The law need not take effect before the specified date, the passage of any law that abolishes the Department of Education at a future date is sufficient.