What percentage of Meridian Visiting Researcher Programs full proposals will receive Open Phil funding?
9
200Ṁ1241
Dec 31
55.8 Percentage resulting in grants
expected
99%
Above 0%
99%
Above 5%
93%
Above 10%
91%
Above 20%
66%
Above 30%
57%
Above 50%
34%
Above 75%
10%
100%

Background Information

This question examines the success rate of full proposals specifically from the Meridian Cambridge Visiting Researcher Programme that were submitted to the Open Philanthropy Technical AI Safety request for proposals. It tracks what percentage of these Meridian Cambridge Visiting Researcher Programme full proposals will ultimately lead to Open Philanthropy offering to fund the project.

Information about the Open Phil Program: Open Philanthropy Technical AI Safety RFP

Information about the Meridian Program: Meridian Cambridge Visiting Researcher Programme

Resolution Criteria

I will make an honest effort to determine how many Meridian Cambridge Visiting Researcher Program full proposals were offered funding as of July 1, 2025. Any non-respondents will be counted as not having been offered funding.

Each full proposal will be counted independently, regardless of how many researchers would be funded per proposal or whether multiple proposals came from the same researcher.

Only full proposals that were part of the Meridian Cambridge Visiting Researcher Program will be counted, not any proposals that participants in this program submitted independently.

I will count "offering funding" as OpenPhil expressing the intention to fund the project. If the researcher rejects this, without OpenPhil ever having made a legally binding official offer, it still counts as an offer of funding.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules