Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade? | Manifold

Will it be possible to disentangle most of the features learned by a model comparable to GPT-4 this decade?

AI OpenAI Technical AI Timelines AI Safety Mechanistic interpretability

Basic

13

Ṁ571

2031

39%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

close date: end of 2030

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Will a prompt that enables GPT-4 to solve easy Sudoku puzzles be found? (2023)

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

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Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

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Will a religion that has some AI as its god, oracle or priest have at least 1 million churchgoers before 2051?

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By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?

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