Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%)
Basic
2
Ṁ82025
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The mean score is a just 37%. Yet, 82 of the indicators are satisfied by at least one developer, meaning that developers can significantly improve transparency by adopting best practices from their competitors.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any foundation model score 75 or higher on The Foundation Model Transparency Index by the end of 2024? (LLama2: 54)
45% chance
Will any model get above human level (92%) on the Simple Bench benchmark before September 1st, 2025.
68% chance
One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?
60% chance
Will the odds of this market be below 50% at the end of 2024?
49% chance
Will the linked market average >= 40% in September 2025?
70% chance
What will be the best score on the GAIA benchmark before 2025?
46% chance
Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented by EOY 2026?
53% chance
Is average probability (upon resolution) of manifold.markets questions less than 50% for all questions settled in 2024
75% chance
What will be the best score on the GPQA benchmark before 2025?
82% chance
Will this market > 50% by the EOY 2024?
79% chance