What will be the median p(doom) of AI researchers after AGI is reached?
Plus
12
Ṁ5162101
83%
Above 5%
73%
Above 10%
62%
Above 20%
24%
Above 50%
10%
Above 80%
AGI defined as an AI that is better at AI research than the average human AI researcher not using AI.
p(doom) defined as human extinction or outcomes that are similarly bad.
In Katya Grace's 2022 survey, median values were 5% for "extremely bad outcome (e.g., human extinction)” and 5-10% for human extinction.
All answers which are true resolve Yes.
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