Ross Ulbricht launches a legal cryptocurrency business in 2025
Basic
2
Ṁ100
Dec 31
58%
chance

Market resolves YES if Ross Ulbricht (founder of Silk Road) launches any legal crypto venture, like an exchange, marketplace, or "serious" cryptocurrency, by the end of the year 2025. Resolution requires an article in an established news source (Reuters, WSJ, NYT, Bloomberg, or similar) confirming the business has processed at least one real customer transaction and Ulbricht's involvement as a founder or executive.

Resolution rules:

  • Launching a memecoin (a cryptocurrency considered a memecoin by most established news sources covering it) doesn't qualify on its own.

  • Advisory and regular engineering and marketing roles don't qualify. There is a separate question for Ross Ulbricht joining in an advisory role.

  • The venture must be legally registered.

  • It must be a business rather than a charity according to the rules of where it is registered. A benefit corporation or some combination of a for-profit and a non-profit counts as a business.

  • If the news article says something like, "It is not clear how much Ulbricht is involved", the article does not qualify for a YES resolution.

  • In cases of ambiguity, I am going to use my judgement to determine whether a source resolves the question.

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Ṁ1,000
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