How is this at 8%? Even with huge advancements in age technology, in 100.000 years so much can happen that kills one.

@LightLawliet My guess is that the market thinks there's a 7% chance of a technological singularity and/or the development of genuine biological immortality in my lifetime (which, if I'm lucky, could extend into the 2090s or even 2100s.) I agree that it's too high - even if I only had a 0.005% chance of dying in any particular year, my chance of surviving 100,000 years would be 0.99995^100000, or 0.7%. If I have even a 0.00001% chance of dying every year, there's still a 1% chance I die before reaching 100,000 anyways.

@evergreenemily
>even if I only had a 0.005% chance of dying in any particular year, my chance of surviving 100,000 years would be 0.995^100000, or 2 times 10 to the negative 218th power

You're computing your chance of survival if you had 0.5% chance of dying each year, there. (0.995 = 99.5%)

Though I disagree with the whole frame, but I wanted to point out the mistake.

@Lovre Oh shit, thanks for catching that! That gets me a way more reasonable number, I'll update my comment to reflect that.

@evergreenemily Well, I would, but editing comments seems to be broken at the moment. I'll just update it here.

0.005% chance of dying per year = 0.7% chance of surviving 100,000 years

0.000001% chance of dying per year = 99.9% chance of surviving 100,000 years

0.00001% chance of dying per year = 99% chance of surviving 100,000 years

@evergreenemily fwiw, I think if you edit a comment and then refresh or renavigate to the page, it will work. (or at least, that worked for me once)

@brubsby Funnily enough, I tried that (via closing and reopening the Manifold app) and it didn't seem to work - but the edit did go through and appeared at some point in the past hour or so. I guess there's just a bit of a lag.

Only 100,000 years old? That’s nothing, try 1 billion years 😎

https://manifold.markets/Meta_C/will-i-live-to-be-more-than-1-billi?r=TWV0YV9D

Will I live to be more than 1 billion years old?

6% chance. A few hundred years, or a few hundred thousand years? Pffft... I seek to live on cosmological timescales! Resolves as "Yes" if I live to see my 1 billionth birthday, else it will resolve no. The following will count towards a "Yes" and/or "Still Alive": Digital and physical clones Backup copies (via mind uploading, DNA storage) Resurrection with future medical advances. Cryogenic storage not resulting in information theoretic death. Traveling on relativistic rockets close to the speed of light, or living close enough to a supermassive black hole, or experiencing other relativistic effects which will result in aging slower relative to Earth's reference frame.

Don't let me down queen

If we're thinking really far ahead...

I feel like there is a lot of ground to cover with this one. Here are a few questions that come to mind:

• Will you continue to use the same Manifold Markets account for the next 100k years?

• What happens if Manifold Markets ceases to exist between now and then; would we (or our descendants) get a refund, or a balance transfer to a new prediction market?

• Would I still win on my bet on here if I die well before your 100,000th birthday? And if so, would it be adjusted for inflation?

• What happens if all of your memories or personality, or physical substrate which hosts your mind, is wiped or drastically altered throughout the eons, or undergo some other change which puts into question the continuity of the self (e.g. information theoretic death). Would that count as death?

• What if you die, and then later brought back to life with future medical advances? Would all of the people who won on “No” have their win revoked?

• Do your clones count as part of your continuity of self, whether physical or digital? Or “backup copies”?

@Meta_C

• If the site is still around in 100,000 years, then yeah, probably!

• Depends on what Manifold does with users' invested mana.

• Depends on what Manifold does with the accounts of dead users, and if Mana is ever officially inflated.

• Information theoretic death counts as death, yes.

• I plan on being buried naturally when I die, so unless they can somehow revive a skeleton, that shouldn't come up.

• Clones, backup copies, etc. don't count.

Are y'all joking or are you actually taking this seriously

@ItsMe taking this sort of stuff presentation layer seriously is the prevailing meme around these parts of the internet, the layer of irony is functionally non-significant

@ItsMe Yes.

(i.e. this is a joke market that will almost certainly never resolve YES, but I will resolve it honestly if I do somehow live to 100,000, and it is predictive. Basically it's just "will someone invent immortality in the next 60-80 years, will Evergreen have access to it, will she choose to live for another 100,000 years, and will Manifold still exist in 101996 CE?")

Does this resolve no if you die but are revivified and then live to 100,000?

@Joshua I'll say it takes brain death for this to resolve NO, and it then remains NO afterwards even if I'm supernaturally resurrected.

Mobile won't let me set a closing date past 9999. Will update later on my computer if I can.