Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by 1.1% in 2023 (IEA), or by a mere 0.1% according to this Nature article.

Here is the graph for the past few years form IEA.

China alone grew around 565 Mt. China's growth was greater than the rest of the world's decrease but some think it may be close to peak.

Will 2027 emissions be lower than 2026?

This market will resolves based on IEA's numbers when released based on the actual change in CO2 emissions between the two years, no matter what extraordinary event (like COVID) may happen each year.

I have created the same markets for 2024, 2025 and 2026 and, at the time of market creation, none has reached >50%.

What about 2027?