Resolution Criteria

• This market resolves to YES if Rory McIlroy wins any of the four major golf championships (Masters Tournament, PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship) between now and the final major of 2034. It resolves to NO if McIlroy does not win any major championship during this period.

  Background

  Rory McIlroy has won four major championships in his career:

  • 2011 U.S. Open

  • 2012 PGA Championship

  • 2014 The Open Championship

  • 2014 PGA Championship

  As of April 2025, McIlroy has not won a major championship in over a decade. Despite this drought, he remains one of the world's top golfers, currently ranked No. 2 globally. McIlroy needs only the Masters Tournament to complete a career Grand Slam.

  Considerations

  • McIlroy has shown strong recent form, winning two PGA Tour events in early 2025, including the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and his second Players Championship.

  • While he hasn't won a major in a decade, McIlroy has accumulated 21 top-10 finishes in majors during this period, demonstrating consistent competitiveness.