Construction on TMT was announced to begin in 2019, but protesters blocked the access road and the construction effort has been on hold ever since. For more background, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Meter_Telescope

Terms

• "On-site" means construction that occurs on the site designated for the telescope. It does not count any activity that occurs elsewhere.

• "Construction" means significant and sustained construction involving a significant number of workers, equipment, and materials. One guy measuring stuff is definitely not significant. Moving earth and laying a foundation definitely is significant. If I have doubts about the significance, I will resolve this market as NO.

• "Start" shall mean that the construction is underway. This market will resolve YES as soon as reliable local media in Hawaii report the start of construction that satisfies all other terms.

• "Thirty Meter Telescope" is the project described in the above Wikipedia article at the time the market is opened. Any telescope of roughly the same size or larger at the intended location or a nearby location shall count, even if the name and exact details are changed.

• "in Hawai'i" shall mean anywhere within the Hawaiian archipelago. The current planned site is atop Mauna Kea, but a change of plan to another Hawaiian mountain that leads to the start of construction shall count as a YES. If the TMT project announces that it is definitely moving to another part of the world, this shall resolve as NO.

• "Before 2026" means any time before 2026-01-01 00:00 in the Hawaiian time zone. If the TMT project announces that construction definitely won't start before 2026, this resolves as NO. If the project is definitely cancelled, this shall resolve as NO.

I shall very strongly endeavor to resolve this market as YES or NO. Resolutions of N/A or PROB shall only be used in the case of something very unexpected happening.

I will bet in this market.